Go-ahead for Sunway merger

High on its post-merger to-do list will be expanding big into China and Singapore as it expects these two countries to contribute 30 per cent to its earnings by 2015.
PETALING JAYA: The proposed merger of Sunway City and Sunway Holdings got the green light from minority shareholders yesterday, and the new bigger Sunway Bhd (Sunway) is expected to be listed on Bursa Malaysia in the third quarter.

High on its post-merger to-do list will be expanding big into China and Singapore as it expects these two countries to contribute 30 per cent to its earnings by 2015.

"The larger group will allow us to realign our investor base and renew fo-reign investors' interest, and an improved and stronger perception of the brand internationally," said its founder and executive chairman Tan Sri Dr Jeffrey Cheah.

Speaking after both companies' extraordinary general meetings, he said Sunway expects to see more suitors from India and Viet-nam who have always been interested in its success in developing Bandar Sunway into "what we believed as the most integrated township in the region, if not the world."

"But our focus will be in the two premium markets of Singapore and China," he said.

With the merger, Sunway will have assets worth RM2 billion, landbank size of 880ha with total gross development value of about RM25 billion, construction order book of RM2.4 billion, and a potential market capi-talisation of over RM3.5 billion.

Currently, 65 per cent of its landbank is in Malaysia, followed by China (22 per cent) and Singapore (6 per cent).

Cheah said following the EGMs, Sunway Holdings and Sunway City will seek court approvals for a capital reduction and repayment exercise, after which the Sunway prospectus will be issued.

He said the issue price of RM2.80 represents a price-earnings ratio (PER) of 11.72 times and 14.02 times respectively and "based on our business strategies and future plans and prospects, there may be potential upside to the PER."

"Our peers in the property and construction sector are currently trading at an ave-rage PER of 19.11 times and if we apply the same PER Sunway's share will trade at about RM3.82 to RM4.58," said Cheah.

He added that Sunway expects to benefit from merger synergies of about 1 to 2 per cent of the overall re-venue. The group pro forma revenue last year was RM3.13 billion.

Cheah also said that in the pipeline is a teaching hospital next to the Sunway Medical Centre but it is still in the planning stage.

"We are developing a business model for this and there is no rush because we want to do it properly and be internationally recognised."

Asked if Sunway plans to launch a project under the Economic Transformation Programme, he said the company will announce a big project sometime this year.

Oil drops, biggest weekly slide since May

NEW YORK: Oil prices fell on Friday, June 17 with U.S. crude slumping to a four-month low under $93 as a dimmer economic outlook and the European debt crisis drove crude to its biggest weekly loss since early May.
U.S. futures fell more than $3 a barrel as momentum sellers piled into the slide. U.S. crude's discount to Brent widened by more than $1 to $19.90 a barrel.
Oil broke away from familiar correlations, diving in tandem with the dollar and despite gains for many commodities. Some oil analysts appeared more pessimistic about Greece than those in the foreign exchange market, where the dollar fell by nearly 1 percent on hopes for a debt deal.
U.S. crude futures for July settled at $93.01 a barrel, down $1.94, or 2.04 percent, its lowest since the February 18. It traded from $91.84 to $95.40 Friday. U.S. crude fell below the 200-day moving average for the first time since September, drawing additional selling.
Brent crude for August settled at $113.21 a barrel, dropping 81 cents, or 0.71 percent, the lowest settlement since May 24, when front-month Brent closed at $112.53. Trading volume was about 20 percent below the 30-day average.
For the week, front-month Brent fell 4.7 percent, the biggest weekly loss since the week to May 6. Brent is up 19 percent this year, while U.S. futures are up less than 2 percent as the European market rose to a record premium.
"The predominant problem here is that traders own too much oil. They bought too much in anticipation of market tightness and now they have to adjust their positions," said Tim Evans of Citi Futures Perspective.
The current July contract for U.S. crude is set to expire on Tuesday, June 21.
Prices slumped early in the European day, and made new lows in mid-afternoon as a downturn in stocks following Research In Motion's (RIMM.O) disappointing results weighed.
"The stock market and euro have come off a bit and that has added pressure on oil and some sell stops have been triggered. People just continue to be nervous about the economy," said Phillip Streible, senior market strategist at Lind-Waldock.
GREEK DRAMA
The euro gained on the day as the embattled Greek prime minister sacrificed his finance minister to force through an unpopular austerity plan, while Germany and France promised to go on funding Athens.
The euro pared those gains slightly in the afternoon when Moody's Investors Service said it may cut Italy's sovereign credit rating from AA2, citing challenges ahead for economic growth due to structural weaknesses and a likely rise in interest rates.
Oil's slump broke its inverse correlation with the dollar, which has eased to its weakest since mid-April at just 22 percent, based on the average of the past 25 days.
"U.S. crude has broken below the recent range of $95-$105 and looks like it will shortly tack another $5 to the downside," said Gene McGillian, analyst at Tradition Energy.
"The fear of the fallout from the Greek debt crisis continues to impact the oil markets. Indications of a possible resolution of the crisis have helped pare some of oil's losses but investors worry about the stalling pace of U.S. economic recovery."
The International Monetary Fund cut its estimate for U.S. gross domestic product. This also weighed on U.S. crude prices. The IMF now projects an anemic 2.5 percent growth this year and 2.7 percent in 2012.
Brent was also under pressure from news that this week's relative strength for the European benchmark was drawing physical crude from far afield, with news that traders were offering Russian Pacific Rim ESPO in the Mediterranean.
Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that showed large hedge funds and other speculators raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions slightly in the week to June 14. - Reuters

Malaysia targets to have 4 co-op banks

The government is targeting to have four cooperative banks which are on par with Bank Kerjasama Rakyat Malaysia Bhd (Bank Rakyat) by 2020.

Deputy Minister of Domestic Trade, Cooperatives and Consumerism, Datuk Rohani Abdul Karim, said one of them, Bank Persatuan Malaysia Bhd (BPMB), was now in operation and had been recommended to follow the Bank Rakyat model.

"The process to establish a second cooperative bank is being worked out with Angkatan Koperasi Kebangsaan Malaysia Berhad (Angkasa) and has been approved by the Malaysian Cooperatives Commission.

"It is just that Bank Negara Malaysia has yet to give its approval to operate as a cooperative bank. So, for the time being, it will operate as a Syariah financing cooperative, he told reporters after opening the BPMB Cooperative annual general meeting in Kepala Batas today.

He said with BPMB being accorded a cooperative bank status last year, it would provide a positive competition for Bank Rakyat. -- Bernama

EPF investment income jumps 19.8pc in Q1

KUALA LUMPUR: The Employees Provident Fund (EPF) registered a 19.76 per cent year-on-year growth in investment income to RM6.53 billion in the first quarter of 2011.
This was primarily due to encouraging equity performance on the back of stronger corporate earnings and resilient economic fundamentals.

In the first quarter, investment in equities contributed RM3.23 billion or 49.44 per cent of EPF's total investment income, representing a 20.24 per cent increase compared with the RM2.69 billion recorded in the previous corresponding quarter.

In a statement yesterday, EPF chief executive officer Tan Sri Azlan Zainol said: "Equity prices were further boosted by strong performance across all key sectors, primarily benefiting from higher global commodity prices, while construction-related stocks strengthened with the announcement of several major projects under the government's Economic Transformation Programme.

"The favourable trade volume had facilitated EPF to capitalise on profit-taking."

The loans and bonds segment was the second largest contributor to EPF's investment income, with a return of RM1.77 billion in the first quarter. This represented an increase of 32.66 per cent from RM1.34 billion in the same period 2010.

Malaysian government securities, meanwhile, generated an income of RM1.35 billion, up RM71.54 million.

Returns from money market instruments recorded double-digit growth, increasing 14.61 per cent to RM153.09 million from RM133.58 million in the first quarter of 2010.

Investment income from properties grew by 29.76 per cent to RM28.12 million from RM21.67 million during the same quarter last year.

As at March 31 2011, EPF's total investment fund stood at RM450.26 billion.

Of the total, equities were allocated 35.55 per cent, loans and bonds 32.32 per cent, Malaysian government securities 27.79 per cent, money market instruments 3.93 per cent and properties 0.41 per cent. - Bernama

Mega deals with Abu Dhabi

Putrajaya: Abu Dhabi's investment arm, Mubadala, will partner 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) to build a US$4.2 billion (RM12.7 billion) aluminium smelter in Sarawak.
The two will also rope in other strategic partners to develop downstream industries valued at about US$1.8 billion (RM5.4 billion).

These industries include a rolling mill, a wire cabling plant, a wheel casting facility and up to 10 extrusion plants.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak said the project will be fast-tracked and will contribute "significantly" to the national economy.

It is expected to create more than 40,000 skilled jobs once the cluster is mature, generate US$3 billion (RM9.05 billion) of incremental gross domestic product and contribute US$2.6 billion (RM7.8 billion) to trade balance, he said.

1MDB is a strategic development company that is fully owned by the government.

Najib announced the government's approval for the project here yesterday after a meeting with Abu Dhabi's Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed Zayed Al Nahyan, who was in Malaysia for a one-day visit.

The oil-rich state affirmed plans to keep a stake in Malaysia's fifth largest banking group, RHB Capital Bhd (RHBCap).

The RHB group is in discussions with 1MDB and Mubadala to be the first major financial institution to set up presence in the Kuala Lumpur International Financial District (KLFID), Najib said.

The group is planning for a modern, energy-efficient building.

The US$8 billion (RM24 billion) KLIFD, to be set up by a Mubadala-1MDB joint venture, is intended to tightly cluster banking and financial entities.

Construction is expected to take off in June, according to reports earlier this year.

Najib also said that oil-rich Abu Dhabi was collaborating with state oil firm Petroliam Nasional Bhd to develop a block in Sarawak.

He said investments were coming in from Abu Dhabi as the latter wanted to be a long-term investor in Malaysia.

"All this is a strong signal of Abu Dhabi's confidence in Malaysia as a growth enabler. It opens the way for more investments from the Middle East pouring into Malaysia," he remarked.

By Adeline Paul Raj

IPO WATCH ---Eversendai Corp Bhd

KUALA LUMPUR: Eversendai Corp Bhd, enroute to a listing on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia on July 1, is upgrading itself to become a main contractor for high-rise iconic buildings and infrastructure projects.
"We are targeting projects which have high components of steel so we can handle the whole works. This will give us better margins," founder and group managing di-rector Datuk AK Nathan said yesterday at the company's prospectus launch.

Eversendai, a structural steel contractor and fabricator, is bidding for RM1.5 billion worth of infrastructure, high-rise building and power plant projects in Southeast Asia (SEA), India and the Middle East after being invited by the public and private sectors.

Nathan said this year alone, Eversendai expects to win between RM1 billion and RM1.5 billion worth of new jobs. It has so far won close to RM350 million worth of new jobs, increasing its order book to RM1.4 billion.

Eversendai is also looking at gro-wing its power plant construction business and is eyeing several projects in Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and India.

Nathan said the company is aiming for steel structural contracts for power plant construction.

In Malaysia, it is looking at the construction of a 1,000 megawatt coal-fired power plant, which is an extension of the existing Tanjung Bin power plant owned by Malakoff Bhd. The government had approved the project on Tuesday.

Eversendai's expertise in power plant was gained from the construction of the Tanjung Bin, Manjung and Jimah power plants se-veral years ago. In India, it has four on-going power plant projects.

Nathan, who pioneered Ever-sendai 27 years ago, is selling 30 per cent of the company to raise RM273.2 million for expansion into the Middle East, India and SEA, and setting up a fabrication plant in Tamil Nadu, India.

Eversendai plans to sell 232.2 million shares of 50 sen each in the company, of which 202 million will be set aside for institutions at an indicative price range of between RM1.66 and RM1.80.

Individual investors would be charged RM1.70 per share or 95 per cent of the institutional price.

Maybank Investment Bank Bhd is the sole adviser, underwriter and bookrunner for the IPO.

CIMB Research expects BNM to hike SRR to 4% in July

KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Economics Research expects Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to raise the statutory reserve requirement (SRR) by another 100 basis points to 4% in July to absorb excess liquidity in the banking system as foreign exchange reserves increased to US$132.7 billion (RM401.4 billion) as at end-May.
It said on Wednesday, June 8 the managed float regime gives the ringgit the flexibility to adjust to two-way capital flows, lifting the ringgit by 1.9% year-to-date (YTD), to RM3.01/US$1 on June 7. In morning trade on Wednesday, the ringgit rose to as high as 2.9994 to the greenback.
“We think that BNM’s primary focus now is on managing the capital inflows as well as warding off the risk of a build-up in domestic liquidity,” it said.
Malaysia’s  foreign exchange reserves increased to US$132.7 billion (RM401.4 billion) as at end-May, up US$2.7 billion from end-April (US$130.0 billion or RM393.2 billion) and US$26.2 billion YTD.
CIMB Research said May’s international reserves marked a new high for the second straight month, with a cumulative US$18.9 billion increase (72.1% of total YTD hike) between end-March and end-May. The reserves position is sufficient to finance 9.3 months of retained imports and is 4.4 times the short-term external debt.
It also noted that to avoid excessive expansionary monetary conditions, the central bank had used a wide range of monetary instruments including direct borrowing, issuance of BNM securities and higher SRR to sterilise capital inflows.
“We continue to expect the SRR ratio to be raised by another 100bp to 4.0% in July to absorb excess liquidity in the banking system,” it said.
CIMB Research said besides the sustained trade surplus, capital inflows also helped to push foreign reserves to new highs in recent months.
“Capital and financial transactions are still expected to book a surplus in line with strong inflows of capital including direct investments. In 1Q11, net foreign direct investment was sustained at RM11.1 billlion while portfolio investment surged to RM8.4 billion for the seventh consecutive quarter.
“As at end-April, foreign investors have pumped RM173.1 billion into the debt market, with RM83.1 billion or 48.0% piled into Malaysian Government Securities (MGS), pushing foreigners' share of Malaysia’s outstanding MGS to 31.6% from 28.1% as at end-December 2010.
“In addition, foreign investors were net buyers of equities for the second straight month in May (US$29.8 million vs. US$201.3 million in April),” it said.
The research house also said Malaysia was in a far stronger position to manage capital flows including coping with a sudden capital reversal without affecting domestic liquidity.
It pointed out the strong reserves position will help accommodate the large capital outflows without causing a liquidity crunch. The amount of excess liquidity (RM292.1 billion as at end-May) absorbed by the central bank can be recycled back to the banking system should liquidity conditions tighten.
“The depth and width of the domestic financial markets, including the debt market, will lead to better absorption of capital flows. Sound financial policies and a strong banking system backed by a huge capital base and low exposure to foreign debt will provide flexibility for the financial system to intermediate volatile capital flows,” it pointed out.

Written by Joseph Chin of theedgemalaysia.com   

Bumi Armada eyes US$800m from IPO

SINGAPORE: Malaysian-based international offshore oil field services contractor, Bumi Armada Bhd hopes to raise between US$700 million and US$800 million from its initial public offering (IPO) plan.

Its executive director and chief executive officer, Hassan Basma said the the IPO was aimed at going for bigger growth for the company.

"We are considering a couple of that range IPOs in the near future, but again provided if we can do it well," he told reporters after the FPSO ARMADA TGT 1'S "Set Sail, For Success" event yesterday.

Looking at the number of FPSO (floating production, storage and offloading) vessels it operates, Bumi Armada is now number eight in the world ranking.

With the new FPSO that is going to start operation in August, he said Bumi Armada would make it number six in the ranking.

"We are hoping that our target near term is to be number four. That's the kind of growth ambition that we have for the industry," he added.

When asked on when the listing will take place, Bumi Armada chairman Datuk Mahamad Fathil Datuk Mahmood said that the company was still waiting for approval from the Securities Commission.

"We hope to get the approval by the middle of this month...start producing prospectus by the end of the month if everything is in order," he said, adding that it would be the biggest local IPO for the year.

Bumi Armada currently serves clients in 11 countries across Asia, Africa and Latin America.

With 43 Offshore supply vessels and three FPSOs in operation, Bumi Armada is the largest OSV owner operator in Malaysia and the eighth largest FPSO operator in the world. -- Bernama

FBM KLCI closes firmly above 1,560-level

KUALA LUMPUR: Late gains at banking stocks and select blue chips propped the FBM KLCI firmly above the 1,560-point level on Friday, June 17, while regional markets mostly stumbled on Greek woes.
At the regional markets, Hong Kong shares fell through two key chart support levels this week while Shanghai's key stock index slid to its lowest level in over eight months as growing bearishness on Chinese equities and Greece's worsening debt crisis drove investors out of riskier assets, according to Reuters.
The FBM KLCI rose 0.59% or 9.19 points to close at 1,563.43.
Gainers edged losers by 394 to 345, while 352 counters traded unchanged. Volume was 946.22 million valued at RM2.22 billion.
At the regional markets, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.17% to 21,695.26, the Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.81% to 2,642.82, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0.64% to 9,351.40, South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.72% to 2,031.93, Singapore’s Straits Times Index declined 0.49% to 3,005.28 and Taiwan’s Taiex shed 0.21% to 8,636.10.
On Bursa Malaysia, Petronas Gas jumped 64 sen to RM12.94 as investors viewed the stock had more upside following the Melaka regasification plant and Kimanis power plant.
Aeon rose 62 sen to RM7.82, KLK and Hong Leong Bank were up 36 sen each to RM22.38 and RM13.36. HLFG and Maybank were up 26 sen each to RM12.64 and RM9 , Panasonic 24 sen to RM24.30, Aeon Credit 21 sen to RM5.62, QSR and MMHE added 16 sen each to RM5.95 and RM8.66, Axiata 10 sen to RM5.05 and CIMB eight sen to RM8.55.
Among the decliners, PPB fell 66 sen to RM16.82, F&N lost 48 sen to RM19.22, Batu Kawan 26 sen to RM17.04, BAT 22 sen to RM45.68, Milux 17 sen to RM1.10, United PLANTATION []s, Lafarge Malayan Cement and Malayan Flour Mills down 16 sen to RM19.84, RM7.42 and RM7.04 respectively, while MAHB lost 13 sen to RM6.37.
The actives included Axiata, Muhibbah, Asia Media, DBE Gurney, Maybank, CIMB and Petronas Chemicals.

Written by Surin Murugiah of theedgemalaysia.com    

GLOBAL MARKETS WEEKAHEAD-Greece, Greece, oh and yes, the Fed

LONDON: Given the questions hanging over investors -- potential sovereign debt default, slowing global growth, higher interest rates, surging oil prices -- a contrarian might think 2011 is actually going pretty well, according to a Reuters report on Friday, June 17.
Nearly half way through the year, world stocks are only slightly lower than they were at the beginning of the year, the currency that is supposed to be under threat, the euro, is actually stronger, and companies are doing fine.
It points to an investment community that has far from given up the ghost, with many still holding on to the belief that the second half will bring with it renewed economic vigour to put things back on track.
But at the same time, investors are very cautious. Which means that they are going to need a shove -- one way or the other -- before they choose a firm direction.
The Greek debt crisis, currently personified by anti-austerity street riots, government reshuffling and stratospheric yields and bond-insurance prices, obviously has great shove potential.
Investors, for the most part, still seem confident that the European Union and International Monetary Fund will solve the problem in the short term -- hence the lack of stock market panic.
But some doubts are creeping in, primarily because of the vehemence with which some Greeks are reacting to internal reform and cost-cutting efforts. Unruly default is no longer completely ruled out.
Dollar funding costs for euro zone banks have risen and European bank shares have hit their lowest level in nearly two years.
Even long-time believers in the ability of the euro zone to sort things out are sounding more concerned.
"The big open question is whether Greece will accept the strings attached to current and future support," Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Germany's Berenberg bank, said in a note. "Tail risks are serious."
The coming week is almost certain to be volatile as a result of the deepening Greek crisis. An EU summit towards the end of the week may provide some clarity.
Investors are not, of course, worried about Greece itself because it is an economic minnow. The fear is of contagion to other, larger countries such as Spain and of the hit that many banks would take on their Greek debt holdings if there were a default.

FED UP
Beyond the euro zone debt crisis, investors are also seeking clarity on the true state of the economic slowdown and on the direction of monetary policy.
The coming week should provide some new fodder.
The key event will be the meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve on Tuesday and Wednesday and the accompanying press conference by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.
Investors have been preparing for the end of the Fed's asset-buying quantative easing programme, known as QE2, with some wondering whether some form of QE3 will be forthcoming because of the stagnant U.S. recovery.
Bill Gross, the co-chief investment officer of PIMCO, the world's largest bond fund manager, has said, for example, that he expects a QE3 to take the form of interest rate caps on 2-3-year Treasuries.
Others are less persuaded that the Fed will feel the need to add to policy that already includes ultra-low interest rates.
"The Fed will acknowledge the weaker macro data without promising any new action," Sarasin bank told its clients. "The conclusion is likely to be that not much change or action should be expected from the Fed in the second half of 2011."
Even without a QE3, meanwhile, Treasuries have the potential to outperform core German debt as there is little sign of U.S. tightening while the European Central Bank has already embarked on that course.
Bank of New York Mellon says its custodial flow data has shown less demand for German and French debt in the past two to three months, a shift from the safe-haven buying of such paper that had been seen in the past 15 months.
The ECB's commitment to tightening, however, will to a certain extend depend on the robustness of the euro zone economy.
There will be a snapshot on Thursday when flash estimates for the euro zone manufacturing and services come out, one of first takes on how June is progressing.
They are expected to show a further decline, but not to signal any major retrenchment from relatively good growth. - Reuters

Written by Reuters 

成交量八大铁律

作为广大投资者而言，读懂成交量才能读懂市场或股票给出的信号，才能结合K线分析来把握股价变化的奥妙所在。散户朋友们应经常听到，结合量价关系来指导自 己股票的买卖，可见成交量对于实战操盘来说是极其重要的。现在本人就来给大家说说，成交量的八大铁律和五种形态，对于中短线操作而言，是能否取得成败的关 键一脉，通过本人以下对成交量变化的分析，以此辅助大家在操盘中灵活运用，从而达到正确买卖股票的意图，当然成交量八大铁律仅是多项指标分析中重要的一 环，但是如果广大投资者由浅入深、主次分明、循序渐进的去逐步学习和把握，那么当你的股票知识从量变转为质变得时候，那么恭喜你已成为了一名股场中的高手 了！

★成交量结合K线变化的八种变化规律，简单的说就是：量价变化的八大铁律！

1、量增价升，买入信号：成交量持续增加，股价趋势也转为上升，这是短中线最佳的买入信号。“量增价升”是最常见的多头主动进攻模式，应积极进场买入，与庄共舞。

2、量增价平，转阳信号：股价经过持续下跌的低位区，出现成交量增加股价企稳现象，此时一般成交量的阳柱线明显多于阴柱，凸凹量差比较明显，说明底部在 积聚上涨动力，有主力在进货为中线转阳信号，可以适量买进持股待涨。有时在上升趋势中途也会出现“量增价平”，则说明股价上行暂时受挫，只要上升趋势未 破，一般整理后仍会有行情。

3、量平价升，持续买入：成交量保持等量水平，股价持续上升，可在期间适时参与。

4、量减价升，继续持有：成交量减少，股价仍在继续上升，适宜继续持股，即使如果锁筹现象较好，也只能是小资金短线参与，因为股价已经有了相当的涨幅，接近上涨末期了。有时在上涨初期也会出现“量减价升”，则可能是昙花一现，但经过补量后仍有上行空间。

5、量减价平，警戒信号：成交量显著减少，股价经过长期大幅上涨之后，进行横向整理不在上升，此为警戒出货的信号。此阶段如果突发巨量天量拉出大阳大阴线，无论有无利好利空消息，均应果断派发。

6、量减价跌，卖出信号：成交量继续减少，股价趋势开始转为下降，为卖出信号。此为无量阴跌，底部遥遥无期，所谓多头不死跌势不止，一直跌到多头彻底丧失信心斩仓认赔，爆出大的成交量，跌势才会停止，所以在操作上，只要趋势逆转，应及时止损出局。

7、量平价跌，继续卖出：成交量停止减少，股价急速滑落，此阶段应继续坚持及早卖出的方针，不要买入当心作茧自缚。

8、量增价跌，弃卖观望：股价经过长期大幅下跌之后，出现成交量增加，即使股价仍在下落，也要慎重对待极度恐慌的“杀跌”，所以此阶段的操作原则是放弃 卖出空仓观望。低价区的增量说明有资金接盘，说明后期有望形成底部或反弹的产生，适宜关注。有时若在趋势逆转跌势的初期出现“量增价跌”，那么更应果断地 清仓出局。

★成交量的五种形态

因为市场就是各方力量相互作用的结果。虽然说成交量比较容易做假，控盘主力常常利用广大投资者对技术分析的一知半解而在各种指标上做文章，但是成交量仍是最客观的分析要素之一。

１、市场分歧促成成交。所谓成交，当然是有买有卖才会达成，光有买或光有卖绝对达不成成交。成交必然是一部分人看空后市，另外一部分人看多后市，造成巨大的分歧，又各取所需，才会成交。

２、缩量。缩量是指市场成交极为清淡，大部分人对市场后期走势十分认同，意见十分一致。这里面又分两种情况：一是市场人士都十分看淡后市，造成只有人 卖，却没有人买，所以急剧缩量；二是，市场人士都对后市十分看好，只有人买，却没有人卖，所以又急剧缩量。缩量一般发生在趋势的中期，大家都对后市走势十 分认同，下跌缩量，碰到这种情况，就应坚决出局，等量缩到一定程度，开始放量上攻时再买入。同样，上涨缩量，碰到这种情况，就应坚决买进，坐等获利，等股 价上冲乏力，有巨量放出的时候再卖出。

３．放量。放量一般发生在市场趋势发生转折的转折点处，市场各方力量对后市分歧逐渐加大，在一 部分人坚决看空后市时，另一部分人却对后市坚决看好，一些人纷纷把家底甩出，另一部分人却在大手笔吸纳。放量相对于缩量来说，有很大的虚假成份，控盘主力 利用手中的筹码大手笔对敲放出天量，是非常简单的事。只要分析透了主力的用意，也就可以将计就计。

４．堆量。当主力意欲拉升时，常把成交量做得非常漂亮，几日或几周以来，成交量缓慢放大，股价慢慢推高，成交量在近期的Ｋ线图上，形成了一个状似土堆的形态，堆得越漂亮，就越可能产生大行情。相反，在高位的堆量表明主力已不想玩了，在大举出货。

５．量不规则性放大缩小。这种情况一般是没有突发利好或大盘基本稳定的前提下，妖庄所为，风平浪静时突然放出历史巨量，随后又没了后音，一般是实力不强的庄家在吸引市场关注，以便出货。

以上就是量价变化的把大铁律和成交量的五种形态，结合大盘及个股的变化趋势或顶底去灵活分析把握。

炒股“七巧板”

牛市初期，熊牛交替，乍暖还寒，股指上蹿下跳起伏跌宕，面对暴涨暴跌，心态一定要稳，不要盲目追涨杀跌，不要期望一夜解套，实在把握不准就购买封闭和开放基金，让专家去帮你决策。

忍

忍，意味着对以往的亏损不要心痛，对手中套得较深的股票，只要上市公司基本面没出问题就应忍痛持有，时间会疗治所有的伤痛。

避

规避非系统风险，选股要回避险礁地雷。不碰老庄股、问题股、亏损股、预警股、戴帽披星股、退市边缘股。万一不幸投资失误，踩上地雷，就应逢反弹减磅或清仓，止损避险。

换

不是简单的调仓换股，应该把手中不涨的换成能涨的，即弃劣换优，然而，换股要很高的技巧，故要慎之又慎。

补

对于手中持有的股改后除权的G股，价格已很低，应选择适当的低位补仓，摊低成本，牛市中除权股填权是早晚的事，补得越早成本越低，大股东也不愿低价贱卖，也要择机拉升股票，誓与大股东同生死，共患难。

抢

牛市初期，切忌满仓操作，要抓住每一次机会抢反弹，打"游击战"，做"T＋0"，买入手中持有的股票，在反弹中当日卖出，既不损失套牢筹码，又博取了短线差价。

捂

牛市初期，在低价位买到的好股票要敢捂，不要被短线的大幅波动所动摇，好股票不会天天涨，只有长线投资才能使利润最大化，捂股就是短期不看股票，忘记股票。